The Russian invasion and Western sanctions have upended Putin's ambitions for Russian LNG. Total sacrificed ten years and its CEO in the effort. Will the Chinese now come to the rescue?
This is a great review of what was recently the largest natural resource development project in the Arctic. Novatek's ambition was to expand from the Yamal LNG facility at Sabetta to LNG 2, an offshore facility across Ob Gulf on its eastern shore. As noted in Professor Gustafson's colorful and insightful story, LNG 2 completion is in deep trouble in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There may well be be consequences for traffic along the NSR and the number of new icebreakers required to keep the LNG carriers and oil tankers moving year-round to the east through Bering Strait and into the Pacific.
Dear Lawson: Thanks for your comment. The latest development is that the Ministry of Energy has scaled down the 2035 target from 120-140 to 80-120 mta. But Russian observers believe that even that is ambitious. (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5514873)
This made no sense when you posted it and gas was at record highs and it still makes no sense now since Russia still has a trade surplus. Russia has become the dominant one in its relation with China: https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/the-russian-financial-superpower https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/ruble-vs-yuan-part-2
This is a great review of what was recently the largest natural resource development project in the Arctic. Novatek's ambition was to expand from the Yamal LNG facility at Sabetta to LNG 2, an offshore facility across Ob Gulf on its eastern shore. As noted in Professor Gustafson's colorful and insightful story, LNG 2 completion is in deep trouble in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There may well be be consequences for traffic along the NSR and the number of new icebreakers required to keep the LNG carriers and oil tankers moving year-round to the east through Bering Strait and into the Pacific.
Dear Lawson: Thanks for your comment. The latest development is that the Ministry of Energy has scaled down the 2035 target from 120-140 to 80-120 mta. But Russian observers believe that even that is ambitious. (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5514873)
Thanks very much, Tim. My latest post, on gas turbines, may shed some light on that question. Best, Thane