6 Comments
author

You're quite right--he was indeed a key figure in the 2000s. I left him out because he sold his stake in Uralkali in 2011 and since that time he has lived abroad and has played no part in the Russian fertilizer business.

Expand full comment

Thanks for diving into this... it provides the kind of detail we need to truly understand the unintended consequences of sanctions!

Expand full comment

I see JRL also thought this post was ooutstanding.

Expand full comment

" EU excluded 7 Russian banks, which handled the bulk of Russia’s agricultural and fertilizer export transactions, from access to the SWIFT international clearance system."

Amid the oceans of comment about the present conflict in Ukraine this post is outstanding despite the inevitable little twinges of Russophobia. Thank you.

I would add that the above quote would seem to explain why, I understand, a growing number of banks are joining the Russian alternative to Swift. Coorrect me if I am wrong.

When historians come to study this whole amazing Ukraine affair, they will no doubt be asking themselves whether the leaders of the West had entirely taken leave of their senses.

For a precedent it is worth looking in detail at the now forgotten Franco-British handling of the first year of the Second World War where incompetence and unreality was only rivalled by hypocrisy before France collapsed and Churchill came to power. A beautiful example is that they seriously considered making war against the Soviet Union, as well as Germany and Italy in 1940 over the Russo-Finnish War. They actually believed they could do this and be successful. Then as now the élites had little idea what their real relative strength was, they knew virtually nothing about the USSR and it never occured to them for a second that the Soviets might have some sort of a case and that they had possessed themselves in patience for years before taking military action, which was the last thing they wanted to do.

Expand full comment

Great piece, Thane. But you’re missing an account of the most interesting fertilizer oligarch of them all: Dmitrii Rybolovlev, who, with minor tweaks created a public company that increased in value well over 100x. He then tried to expatriate some of his wealth and eventually succumbed to Putin’s oprichniki.

Expand full comment

Thanks, Thane. Good story that needed to be told. I'm under the impression that Putin has most directly linked the blockage of that pipeline with the Istanbul grain agreement, however, so I hope you will look further into that.

Ukraine was itself a major fertilizer producer, but Dmytro Firtash's Group DF wound up controlling most of the producers in Ukraine, and they have had a very checkered history (as well as some being shot up).

Expand full comment