'Gref delivered a stern warning of the dire consequences for Russia if tensions escalated further. Putin ignored him.'
Poor old Gref was ingnored. No more trips to Baden Baden. No he wasn't. What happened was that the Russian leadership decided that the situation in Ukraine was too dangerous to ignore any longer despite the likely financial consequences that Putin and other Russian leaders were well aware of. It is obvious that the Russian leadership prepared carefully for financial sanctions. Foreign Minister Lavrov put his finger on it when he said 'sanctions are a tax on our independance.' So he clearly realises that there is a cost for Russia.
'Gref warned that it would take a decade before the Russian economy recovered to the 2021 level.' That warning is already looking like it was too alarmist. The 'military Keynesiasm' being practiced by Russia because of the war is likely to stimulate growth considerably after years of ultra conservative economic policies. Policies that incidentally have allowed Russia to ride out the sanctions onslaught without too much inconvenience.
'At another conference in November, he [Gref] said, “No one yet fully realizes the losses that Russia has suffered.”' And no one will for a number of years. They may be great or minimal. But it has been a choice because Russia could no longer safely live with the easy solutions of Western investment.
Not only are Russian banks and businesses banned from Swift but I understand they have now been forbidden to use it by the Russian government.
Judging by the rocky state of western financial institutions perhaps those future capital investment flows were to an extent illusory anyway.
'Gref delivered a stern warning of the dire consequences for Russia if tensions escalated further. Putin ignored him.'
Poor old Gref was ingnored. No more trips to Baden Baden. No he wasn't. What happened was that the Russian leadership decided that the situation in Ukraine was too dangerous to ignore any longer despite the likely financial consequences that Putin and other Russian leaders were well aware of. It is obvious that the Russian leadership prepared carefully for financial sanctions. Foreign Minister Lavrov put his finger on it when he said 'sanctions are a tax on our independance.' So he clearly realises that there is a cost for Russia.
'Gref warned that it would take a decade before the Russian economy recovered to the 2021 level.' That warning is already looking like it was too alarmist. The 'military Keynesiasm' being practiced by Russia because of the war is likely to stimulate growth considerably after years of ultra conservative economic policies. Policies that incidentally have allowed Russia to ride out the sanctions onslaught without too much inconvenience.
'At another conference in November, he [Gref] said, “No one yet fully realizes the losses that Russia has suffered.”' And no one will for a number of years. They may be great or minimal. But it has been a choice because Russia could no longer safely live with the easy solutions of Western investment.
Not only are Russian banks and businesses banned from Swift but I understand they have now been forbidden to use it by the Russian government.
Judging by the rocky state of western financial institutions perhaps those future capital investment flows were to an extent illusory anyway.