Western sanctions on oil production have had only a limited impact so far. But their effects will show up increasingly as the 2020s move on, in the form of steadily higher costs and delays.
I am sure the absence of western technology will be a nuisance but it is hard to believe that a country as advancd technically as Russia will not be able to replicate the necessary equipment and skills. Equally there is nothing to stop highly paid individuals coming to Russia to advise local labour on how to carry out procedures.
Your points are well taken. That's why I stressed in my post that in the long-term, constraints on infrastructure and funding may turn out to be more important than the sanctions. As for the role of technology, however, one should bear in mind that it is a moving front. The people who would at the forefront of those advances, and therefore the the most useful to the Russian companies, would likely themselves be employees of major foreign companies, and therefore vulnerable to Western secondary sanctions. (All this assumes, of course, that Western sanctions are still in effect, say, ten years out.)
I am sure the absence of western technology will be a nuisance but it is hard to believe that a country as advancd technically as Russia will not be able to replicate the necessary equipment and skills. Equally there is nothing to stop highly paid individuals coming to Russia to advise local labour on how to carry out procedures.
Your points are well taken. That's why I stressed in my post that in the long-term, constraints on infrastructure and funding may turn out to be more important than the sanctions. As for the role of technology, however, one should bear in mind that it is a moving front. The people who would at the forefront of those advances, and therefore the the most useful to the Russian companies, would likely themselves be employees of major foreign companies, and therefore vulnerable to Western secondary sanctions. (All this assumes, of course, that Western sanctions are still in effect, say, ten years out.)